‘Looking pretty dire’: AFL’s likely options revealed as brutal cyclone threatens Opening Round

Tropical Cyclone Alfred is causing concern for the AFL ahead of Opening Round, with the natural disaster expected to make landfall near Brisbane on Thursday, as southern Queensland continues to be battered by strong winds and huge swells.

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The Lions and Cats are scheduled to face-off from 7:50pm AEDT at the Gabba, but the likelihood of that meeting going ahead as fixtured is now in considerable doubt.

Fox Footy’s Jon Ralph revealed on On the Couch some Brisbane players and coaches were already sandbagging their houses, such is the concern over the cyclone.

“The AFL has been speaking since Saturday with the Queensland government, which so far has told the league to make its own call,” he explained on Twitter.

“Tomorrow (Tuesday) it will have much better weather forecasts 48 hours out. The moment it gives an indication to the AFL it should postpone that game, the AFL will do so.”

That’s not the only game facing issues with Gold Coast to host Essendon on Saturday evening. Heavy rain is expected in the region when the cyclone hits, even if it makes landfall north of the glitter strip.

Ralph reported excellent drainage is expected to help Heritage Bank Stadium recover but the AFL will monitor the impact on the region. Essendon is scheduled to fly up on Friday.

AFL 360 host Gerard Whateley relayed some of the thoughts of those currently in the thick of things in Brisbane.

“Just talking to people in Brisbane before we came on air tonight, they said it feels different. It’s eerily windy and it’s humid, and there is a sense of foreboding … that sense of what’s coming,” Whateley told Fox Footy on Monday evening.

“It’s easy for us from a long way away, but what’s being felt on the ground in Brisbane is that they will soon be under threat.

“Talking to a couple of people tonight, the quotes were ‘I’d be amazed if it goes ahead’ and ‘it’s looking pretty dire’.

Five-time All-Australian and new AFL 360 co-host Gary Lyon said Brisbane-Geelong going ahead on Thursday night was not of utmost importance in the grand scheme of things.

“It’s almost unprecedented,” Lyon began.

“Footy is important, it’s important to all of us — particularly the first game, particularly the Brisbane Lions unfurling the premiership flag … but it’s not that important in the overall scheme of things, and this is what all of these (people) who are making decisions are going to have to wrestle with over the next 24-48 hours, I believe.

“It’s not that important. I know that might sound sacrilegious … we pay homage to AFL footy at the altar, but it’s not (that important), and all these things they’ve got to take into account.”

Whateley outlaid the likeliest pair of possibilities regarding Lions-Cats.

“The two live scenarios now — depending on what happens — there is the possibility of pushing the game later in the weekend if Brisbane came through relatively unscathed, (if it) just got a good shake from the wind but (wasn’t) damaged and life-threatening, maybe Sunday night (they’d play), post the Giants-Collingwood game — that’s a live possibility.

“And then the neatest, which the premier spoke about today, is obviously (playing in) Round 3 when both teams (are currently scheduled to) have the bye.”

Speaking to media in Sydney on Monday morning, league chief executive Andrew Dillon stressed that despite reports of a potential re-scheduling for the season opener, the AFL was fully planning for the match to go ahead on Thursday night.

“To start off, our opening game is a big game – but it’s not the main game,” Dillon told reporters.

“I think the main game at this stage is for us to be in contact with the Queensland government and the Bureau of Meteorology and the main game is actually the people of south-east Queensland and northern New South Wales are safe. That’s the focus now.

“It (the forecast) has already slightly changed in the past 12 to 24 hours, so we’re three days out from the game. We’ll continue to work with the clubs, the broadcasters, but importantly the Bureau and the Queensland government, on the game.”

Dillon said he’d spoken to Lions chief executive Greg Swann both on Sunday night and Monday morning and stressed that “the plan is the game is scheduled for Thursday night”.

But Dillon added: “For every game we have contingencies – and there are options with byes and the like – but at the moment the game is scheduled for Thursday night. The Lions are working towards that, as are Geelong and as are the AFL and Channel 7 and Fox.”

Asked about what those options could look like, Dillon said: “I won’t go into all the hypotheticals, but there’s plenty of options. Having the games in Opening Round actually provides a lot more flexibility for us in a normally scheduled round.”

Dillon added that the league’s Covid experience showed “when we need to be, as an industry we can be super nimble and make those changes at relatively short notice”.

The league CEO said a deadline would be “when we know what’s actually going to happen”, but added it was unlikely a decision would be taken out of the AFL’s hands.

“At the moment we’re talking about forecasts – and those forecasts, as I said, have changed,” he said.

“We’ll continue to work with the Queensland government and the Bureau on that. There’s no actual deadline, it’s when we’re absolutely 100 per cent confident about what’s going to happen – then we’ll make the call.

“Weather patterns are unpredictable, and the health and safety of our players and our fans will be the No.1 priority in any decision that we make.”

As of 5:30am on Monday morning, the Bureau of Meteorology predicted winds to exceed 130km/h on Thursday in Brisbane, with winds of 90km/h or more expected on the days either side.

Should Cyclone Alfred hit landfall as assumed, the worst conditions will likely be seen just south of the cyclone in conditions that could see up to 600 millimetres fall in a 24-hour period throughout southeast Queensland — despite the more conservative forecast below.

Nine’s Tom Morris reports that Brisbane has informed the league of their desire to — in the case of a re-scheduling — play Geelong in Round 3, when both teams are currently set for a bye weekend.

On Sunday, the Bureau of Meteorology issued an update on the category two system, outlining its trajected path heading into the start of the AFL home-and-away season.

“Severe coastal hazards are likely for southern Queensland and northeast New South Wales (this week), the Bureau said.

“A large and powerful, to potentially damaging easterly swell as well as abnormally high tides are forecast about exposed southern Queensland beaches, possibly extending to northern New South Wales from Monday.”

Alfred’s projected arrival near Brisbane at this stage will come between Thursday and Friday morning, meaning that the opening match of 2025 between reigning premiers Brisbane and opponent Geelong could be the most affected.

The AFL said it would this week survey the system, declaring in a statement to multiple media outlets: “We will continue to monitor the situation over the coming days and be in step with Government advice.”

A tropical cyclone hasn’t made landfall as a categorised system in south-eastern QLD for around 31 years, circa ex-Tropical Cyclone Zoe in 1974.

Ironically, a clash between the same two sides last year in Round 6 at The Gabba was also subject to a plethora of rain, with the Cats taking out the low-scoring affair.

The Bureau encouraged residents and communities living on the Queensland coast and the northern New South Wales coast to stay up to date with the latest tropical cyclone information and forecast tracks on its website in the coming days.

OPENING ROUND FIXTURE

Thursday March 6

Brisbane vs Geelong, The Gabba @ 6:50pm local time (7:50pm AEDT)

Friday March 7

Sydney vs Hawthorn, SCG @ 7:40pm AEDT

Saturday March 8

Gold Coast vs Essendon, People First Stadium @ 4:15pm local time (5:15pm AEDT)

Sunday, March 9

GWS vs Collingwood, ENGIE Stadium @ 3:20 AEDT